How to Analyze Pokemon Card Price Trends

When tracking Pokemon card prices, it’s easy to focus on the most recent sale and assume that’s the card’s current value. But experienced collectors and investors understand that price trends matter just as much—if not more—than individual sales. This is where moving averages come in. By using the 20-day and 50-day moving averages alongside a trend line, you can gain deeper insights into market momentum, potential buy points, and when it might be time to sell.

What Are Moving Averages, and Why Do They Matter?

A moving average (MA) smooths out price fluctuations by averaging the sales data over a specific period. Instead of focusing on single sales that might be outliers, moving averages help reveal the overall direction of the market.

• 20-Day Moving Average (20MA): This is a short-term trend indicator. It reacts quickly to price changes and is useful for spotting sudden momentum shifts.

• 50-Day Moving Average (50MA): A medium-term indicator that smooths out fluctuations more than the 20MA. It helps determine longer-term trends and provides confirmation of price movements.

By comparing these two moving averages with a trend line, we can gauge whether a Pokemon card is in an uptrend, downtrend, or at a potential turning point.

Case Study: Charizard ex #199 from Pokemon 151

Let’s analyze the market behavior of Charizard ex using recent PSA 10 sales data.

Identifying an Uptrend

In early to mid-December 2024, Charizard ex consistently traded above the 20MA, signaling the first sign of a momentum shift. Sustained sales above this short-term moving average often indicate growing buying interest. Then, on December 16, the 20MA crossed above the 50MA—a bullish signal known as a golden cross. This crossover confirmed the strengthening trend, and by late December, the 20MA continued climbing, reinforcing the upward momentum.

The Peak and Signs of Weakness

Following a peak of $1,050 on February 1st, prices began to cool off. The sale price on February 11 dropped to $920, and while the 20MA was still above the 50MA, it had started to decline and was led by a string of sales below the 20MA.

By February 24, the sale price had dropped further to $855, and the 20MA followed downward. The key warning sign? The 50MA was still rising slightly, but the 20MA was falling towards it. If the 20MA crosses below the 50MA, that’s known as a death cross, which often signals a bearish trend.

How to Use These Indicators for Buying and Selling

Here’s how you can apply this strategy to your own Pokemon card investments:

1. Spot Buying Opportunities with the Bullish Crossover

When the 20MA crosses above the 50MA, it often signals the start of an uptrend. This happened with Charizard ex around early January, which would have been a good time to buy before prices surged to $1,050.

2. Be Cautious of the Death Cross

If the 20MA drops below the 50MA, it typically means the trend is reversing. We saw this happening in late February, warning of potential declines. Selling at the cross can help you lock in profits before the market dips further.

3. Use the Trend Line for Confirmation

In addition to moving averages, the trend line of the price chart can help confirm whether an uptrend or downtrend is still intact. For example If the sale prices are below the 20MA while it’s still falling, it’s an even stronger signal to sell.

By combining the 20-day moving average, 50-day moving average, and trend lines, you can make more informed decisions when buying or selling Pokemon cards. Rather than reacting to individual sales, you’ll have a clearer picture of market trends and momentum shifts.

To track the trends and leverage moving averages for your own Pokemon card investments, sign up for chasecard.gg today. With real-time sales data and powerful market insights, you can stay ahead of the market and make smarter decisions in your collecting journey.